经济学人|When every vote counts

The economist

What the 2020 results say about America’s future

2020年的大选,对美国的未来意味着什么?

“Months of frantic electioneering, $13.9bn of campaign spending, a raging pandemic and mass protests over race: in spite of all the sweat and tears, America was still determining as we went to press if its next president really would be Joe Biden or whether Donald Trump might somehow wrangle a second term. Congress is likely to be split between a Democratic House and a Republican Senate—though even that result may remain in doubt until a run-off in January.

长达数月的疯狂的选举活动、高达139亿元的活动经费、肆虐的新冠疫情以及大规模的种族运动:在我们发布这篇文章的时候,美国不顾所有的汗水和眼泪,仍然在决定他们的下一任总统是否真的是拜登,或是特朗普可能以某种方式取得连任。国会很可能在民主党的众议院和共和党的参议院之间分裂——尽管到明年一月份大选结束前,结果可能一直存在疑问。

In the coming days politicians should take their cue from voters, who turned out in greater force than in any year since 1900 and who made their choice without violence. Vote-counting must run its course and disputes between the two campaigns be settled within the spirit of the law. The biggest threat to that comes from Mr Trump, who used his election-night party to claim falsely that he had already won, and to fire up his supporters by warning that victory was being stolen from him. Coming from a man sworn to safeguard America’s constitution, such incitement was a reminder why many, including this newspaper, had called for voters to repudiate Mr Trump wholesale.

在接下来的日子里,政治家们应当顺从民意,他们的投票人数是1900年来最多的一年,而且他们使用非暴力的方式进行选择。计票工作必须要按部就班的完成,两大竞选阵营之间的争端必须在法制精神下解决。最大的威胁来自于特朗普,他利用选举之夜的派对谎称自己已经赢了,并且提醒说他的胜利正在被窃取,以此来煽动他的支持者。这是一个宣誓守护美国宪法的人做出来的事情,如此的煽动行为是一个警示——为何包含本刊在内的许多人都呼吁选民全面拒绝特朗普。

With Mr Biden’s victory they would take a crucial first step in that direction. Only once in the past 40 years has a president been denied a second term. Mr Trump will lose the popular vote by, we reckon, 52% to 47%—only the electoral college’s bias towards rural voters saved him from a crushing defeat. That is a repudiation of sorts.

随着拜登的胜利,他们将会朝着这个方向迈出关键的第一步。在过去的40年中,只有一个总统没有实现恋人。我们预测,特朗普将会以 52%-47%的比例输掉选举——只有选举团对农村选举人的偏爱让他免于惨败。这对他是某种意义上的否定。

A Biden White House would also set a wholly new tone. The all-caps tweets and the constant needling of partisan divisions would go. So would the self-dealing, the habitual lying and the use of government departments to pursue personal vendettas. Mr Biden is a decent man who, after the polls closed, vowed to govern as a unifier. His victory would change American policy in areas from climate to immigration. That is a form of repudiation, too.

拜登领导的白宫也同样会有一个全新的基调。全是大写字母的推特和连续不断的党派分歧将会不复存在。同样消失的还有 以权谋私、撒谎成性以及利用职务之便解决私人恩怨。拜登是一个正派的人,在选举结束后,他宣誓会以统一者的身份执政。他的胜利将会改变美国从气候到移民等多种领域的政策。这也是否定特朗普的另外一种形式。

And yet the unexpected closeness of the vote also means populism will live on in America. With this election it has become clear that Mr Trump’s astonishing victory in 2016 was not an aberration but the start of a profound ideological shift in his party (see Lexington). Defying expectations and covid-19, he has won millions more votes in the huge turnout of 2020 than he did in 2016’s moderate one. Far from being swept away in a blue wave, Republicans have gained seats in the House and seem set to keep control of the Senate. The Republican Party, which fell under Mr Trump’s spell while he was in office, is not about to shake itself out of the trance now. It is even conceivable that Mr Trump, or a member of his family, could run for the White House in 2024.

然而,双方票数出人意料的接近,这也意味着民粹主义将会继续在美国存在。本次大选证明特朗普在2016年让人惊讶的获胜并非意外,这只是其党派内部深层次思想转变的开始。出人意料的是,尽管新冠肆虐,他在2020年庞大的选举人中获得的票数,比他在温和的2016年选举中获得的多出几百万。共和党不仅没有被蓝色浪潮卷走,反而在众议院中获得了更多的席位,而且看起来有继续掌控参议院的趋势。在特朗普执政期间,共和党被特朗普所迷惑,现在仍然不打算摆脱这种状态。甚至可以想象,特朗普或者说是其家族成员将在2024年竞选总统。

The outside world, which has been watching this contest with rapt attention, will draw two conclusions from America’s failure to reject Trumpism more decisively. The first will be among populist nationalists who look to Mr Trump for inspiration and who will now reckon that their brand of politics has a brighter future outside America, too. An abject defeat for Mr Trump may have spelled trouble for politicians like Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil and Marine Le Pen in France. Instead Nigel Farage, formerly the leader of the Brexit Party, is busy planning his comeback (see article). The persistence of Mr Trump’s support suggests that the rejection of immigration, urban elites and globalisation, which gathered pace after the financial crisis of 2008-09, still has further to run.

外界一直在全神贯注的看着这场较量,美国没能决然放弃特朗普将得出两种结论。首先是民粹主义者,他们从特朗普身上受到鼓舞,并且认为他们的政治方向在美国以外也有广阔的前景。特朗普的失败或许对 巴西的 Jair Bolsonaro 和法国的Marine Le Pen 意味着麻烦。相反,前英国脱欧党领袖 Nigel Farage 却正忙着筹备复出。特朗普受到的持续支持表明,排斥 移民、城市精英以及全球化的步伐,在2008-09年经济危机后加速了,而且仍然在持续。

Dialogue

A:Hi , Zoey . Thanks for making time for this conference today . I know it’s late for you .
嗨,zoey,感谢你抽出时间来参加今天的会议。我知道对你来说有点晚了。

B: No problem . Is Alex joining us today ?
没问题,alex今天要加入我们吗?

A:I’m afraid not . He has been having some connection problems , so we’ll go ahead without him .
恐怕不行,他一直遇到一些连接问题,因此我们将在没有他的情况下进行。

B: Ok , sounds good . What’s on the agenda for today .
好的,听起来不错,今天的议程是什么?

A:First , I’d like to talk about our sales plan for this year . Then we’ll move on to our new product .
首先,我想谈谈我没今年的销售计划。然行我们再谈谈我们的新产品。

B:Perfect .
好极了。

A:Lastly , we’ll cover some of our product issues and hopefully think of some solutions .
最后,我没将涵盖一些产品问题,并希望能提出解决方案。

B:Will we have time to discuss our ideas for other new products as well ?
我没还有时间讨论其它新产品的想法吗?

A:Sure . I think we can fit that in at the end . So , shall we start ?
当然。我想我们最后可以留时间给它。那么,我们开始吧?

以上译自经济学人,仅供个人英语学习,如有侵权请联系删除。

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