经济学人|在全球陷入经济衰退的情形下,中国却实现了V型复苏——A big splash

The economist

In a world mired in recession, China manages a v-shaped recovery.

在全球陷入经济衰退的情形下,中国却实现了V型复苏。

One scene more than any other from China’s coronavirus recovery has caught the world’s attention: a giant pool party in August in Wuhan, the city where the pandemic began. Nearly four months after their 11-week lockdown, revellers were crammed together in waist-high water, jumping and shouting in exhilaration as a dj spun bass-heavy beats. The video went viral. It was a moment of pure release and a sign of how China is far ahead of most other countries in returning to normality (of a sort). Economic data are rarely as exciting as pool parties, but China’s latest gdp figures, released on October 19th, were, roughly speaking, the statistical equivalent of Wuhan’s aquatic festivities.

在中国在疫情恢复的过程中,与其它任何场景相比,有一幕吸引了全世界的注意力:今年八月份,在疫情爆发地武汉的一个巨大的泳池派对。在将近4个月,11周的封锁后,狂欢者们挤满了齐腰的水中,在DJ播放的重低音旋律中兴奋的跳着喊着。这段视频疯狂的传播着。这是一个纯粹的放松时刻,也是中国遥遥领先于与其它大多数国家,回归常态的一个标志。经济数据很少像经济派对那样火爆。但中国10.19日发布的最新GDP数据中,粗略地表明,在统计上相当于武汉的水上盛会。

Officials reported that the economy expanded by 4.9% in the third quarter compared with a year earlier, just shy of its prepandemic pace. Whereas most other countries are mired in recession and grappling with a new wave of covid-19 cases, China has just about completed the upward leg of a v-shaped rebound. Analytically, its success is easy to explain. China got one crucial thing right. By almost stamping out the virus it was able to allow activity to resume with few restrictions. Schools are fully open, factories are humming and restaurants are buzzing. China is also lucky in one crucial way. It is better insulated from weak global demand than smaller peers such as New Zealand that have done a good job of containing the pandemic, too. Until vaccines are rolled out, others will struggle to match China’s feat.

官方报告称,第三季度经济增长了4.9% ,仅略低于其疫情前的速度。当其它大多数国家都陷入经济衰退、应对新一波新冠疫情时,中国刚刚完成了V型反弹的上行阶段。从分析的角度来看,它的成功很容易解释。中国做对了一件至关重要的事情。通过几乎消灭了病毒,使其活动恢复几乎不受到限制。学校复学,工厂复工,餐馆恢复营业。中国在另一个关键方面也很幸运。与新西兰等同样控制住疫情的小国家相比,中国更能够免受全球需求疲软的影响。在疫苗推出前,其他国家将很难与中国匹敌。

Yet China’s headline resilience has masked an unbalanced recovery. Back in February, when the government began cautiously to relax its lockdown, it focused on reopening factories and launching infrastructure projects. It correctly reasoned that maintaining strict health protocols in factories and on construction sites, which can be managed as semi-closed environments, would be easier than in shopping malls or schools. On top of that, China’s meagre provisions for unemployment insurance meant that the millions of people who found themselves out of work had to cut back on spending. Early in its recovery, China’s economy was thus fuelled by factory production and investment. Capital formation—the category in gdp accounting that encompasses these endeavours— contributed five percentage points to growth in the second quarter, whereas consumption subtracted more than two percentage points. Back then that left China with a 3.2% year-on-year growth rate.

中国整体的韧性掩盖了复苏的不均衡。在今年2月,政府开始谨慎的放松封锁,主要聚焦在恢复工厂和启动基建项目。他正确的推断出,在工厂和建筑工地这些可以作为半封闭环境管理的地方保持严格的卫生规则要比在学校和商场容易。除此之外,中国失业保险的供应不足意味着数百万的失业者不得不削减开支。在复苏早期,中国的经济是由工厂生产和投资推动的。资本类——在GDP核算类中,这些努力也会被包括在内——为第二季度的增长贡献了5个百分点,而消费却减少了超过两个百分点。当时,中国经济同比增长3.2%。

The latest data reflect a slightly more balanced recovery (see chart). The contribution to third-quarter growth from capital formation fell to less than three percentage points, in line with the pre-pandemic norm, as infrastructure spending tailed off. Consumption added nearly two percentage points, which was below its pre-pandemic heights but a big improvement—easily noticeable in the crowds that have returned to tourist sites, restaurants and shops. Trade was the cream on top. China’s share of global merchandise exports has risen to a record high during the pandemic. It received a boost by being the first manufacturing power to resume operations, in addition to being the world’s biggest producer of protective equipment, from masks to surgical gowns.

最新的数据,反映了一种略微均衡的复苏。资本类对第三季度的增长贡献降至不到三个百分点,随着基建支出的所见,已经降到了疫情前的水平。消费增加了将近2个百分点,虽低于疫情前的高度,但也是一个巨大的提升——这从旅游景区、餐馆、商超里的人群中就很容易注意到。贸易是最重要的因素。在疫情期间,中国在全球出口商品中所占的份额达到历史高位。作为第一个复产的制造业大国,他获得了推进。此外,他也是世界上最大的防疫物资生产商(从口罩到手术服)。

Whenever Chinese data look so rosy, it is natural to ask whether they are believable. In this case a range of non-gdp indicators, including other countries’ exports to China, lend credence to the picture of a robust rebound. The bigger worry is whether the recovery has been at the expense of efforts to rein in debt.

每当中国的数据看起来如此乐观时,人们很自然的会问这是否可信。在这种情况下,包括其它国家对中国出口在内的一些列非GDP指标,为中国经济的强劲复苏画面增加了可信度。更令人担忧的是,是否这种复苏是以控制债务为代价。

Yet China is far from alone. Governments around the world have run up huge tabs to lessen the economic fallout from the pandemic. With its growth back on track, China has a chance to tighten the spigots again. s&p, a credit-rating agency, notes that the country’s real lending rates (ie, adjusted for inflation) have recently climbed to a five-year high, a dampener on investment. If successful, China will confine irrational exuberance to pools.

然而,中国并不是唯一这样做的国家。世界各国政府已经为了减轻疫情带来的经济下滑而支付了巨额费用。随着经济增长重回正轨,中国有机会再次收紧政策。信用评级机构s&p 支出,该国的实际贷款利率已经攀升至5年来的最高点,这对投资是一种抑制。如果成功的话,中国将会把非理性繁荣限制在池子里。

Dialoague

A: Hi Scott , this is Rose from Mr.Letterman’s office . Is this a good time to talk ?
嗨,Scott,我是 Letterman先生办公室的 Rose。你现在方便讲话吗?

B: It is . What can I do for you ?
是的,我能为你做些什么?

A : I’m just calling to check if you received my email about the conference next week .
我打电话来是像确认一下你是否收到了关于下周会议的邮件。

B: I don’t believe so ,but let me see …… No , it’s not in my inbox.
好像没有,让我看看,嗯,我的收件箱里面没有。

A: Oh , sorry about that . I’ll resend it ,now . Could you confirm that it went through ?
噢,真是抱歉。我现在就重新发一遍。请问你能确认收到了么?

B: Sure , let’s just give it a second . Oh , there it is !
当然,稍等一下。哦,收到了。

A:Great . There should be 2 attachments with the schedule as well .
太好了,这里有两个附件和一个时间表

B:Yup . It’s all there . i’ll look at the documents and get back to you later this week .
对待,都收到了。我看到文件后这周稍晚点给你回复。

A: Sounds good . Oh , and feel free to contact me if you have any questions .
好的,如果你有任何问题,请随时与我联系。

B:Will do , Rose .Thanks for your help !

我会的,谢谢。

以上译自经济学人,仅供个人英语学习,如有侵权请联系删除。

赞 (0)