疫情下的赢者与输者Winners and losers

The pandemic has created big performance disparities between the world’s economies. They could get even larger.

疫情下,世界经济体之间表现出了巨大差异。而且差异可能会变得更大。

In february the coronavirus pandemic struck the world economy with the biggest shock since the second world war . Lockdowns and a slump in consumer spending led to a labour-market implosion in which the equivalent of nearly 500m fulltime jobs disappeared almost overnight. World trade shuddered as factories shut down and countries closed their borders. An even deeper economic catastrophe was avoided thanks only to unprecedented interventions in financial markets by central banks, government aid to workers and failing firms, and the expansion of budget deficits to near-wartime levels.

今年二月,新冠对世界经济造成了自二战以来的最大冲击。工厂关闭以及消费者支出下滑导致了劳务市场崩溃,相当于有5亿个全职工作几乎在一夜之间消失。国际贸易因为工厂关闭和边境封锁变不再稳定。多亏了央行对金融市场的空前干预,才使更严重的经济危机得以避免。政府对工人和濒危的企业进行了援助,并且把财政赤字扩大到了将近战时的水平。

The crash was synchronised. As a recovery takes place, however, huge gaps between the performance of countries are opening up—which could yet recast the world’s economic order. By the end of next year, according to forecasts by the oecd, America’s economy will be the same size as it was in 2019 but China’s will be 10% larger. Europe will still languish beneath its pre-pandemic level of output and could do so for several years—a fate it may share with Japan, which is suffering a demographic squeeze. It is not just the biggest economic blocs that are growing at different speeds. In the second quarter of this year, according to ubs, a bank, the distribution of growth rates across 50 economies was at its widest for at least 40 years.

坠机是同步的。然而,随着复苏的进行,不同国家表现出的差距正在不断拉大——这可能会重塑世界经济秩序。根据世界经贸组织的预测,明年年底美国的经济水平将会和2019年一样,而中国将会增长10%。欧洲仍将在疫情前的产出水平下苦苦挣扎,并且可能会数年如此——正在经历人口衰减的日本可能也是同样的命运。不仅仅是大的经济体在以不同的速度增长。根据瑞士银行的数据,在今年第二季度,50个经济体的增长率分布达到了40年来最广阔的水平。

The variation is the result of differences between countries. Most important is the spread of the disease. China has all but stopped it while Europe, and perhaps soon America, is battling a costly second wave. Over the past week Paris has closed its bars and Madrid has gone into partial lockdown. In China, meanwhile, you can now down sambuca shots in nightclubs. Another difference is the pre-existing structure of economies. It is far easier to operate factories under social distancing than it is to run service-sector businesses that rely on faceto-face contact. Manufacturing makes up a bigger share of the economy in China than in any other big country. A third factor is the policy response. This is partly about size: America has injected more stimulus than Europe, including spending worth 12% of gdp and a 1.5 percentage point cut in short-term interest rates. But policy also includes how governments respond to the structural changes and creative destruction the pandemic is causing.

这种差异是因为国家的不同导致的。影响最大的就是疾病在该国的传播速度。中国几乎已经完全阻断了病毒的传播,而欧洲或许很快还有美国,正在与第二波疫情做斗争。上周,巴黎已经关闭了酒吧,马德里也进入了部分封禁状态。然而,在中国,你现在已经可以到夜店喝酒了。另外一个不同就是先前的经济结构不一样。与依赖当面沟通的服务行业相比,在保持一定社交距离下运营一个工厂要容易得多。制造业在中国经济中所占的比例,要比其它任何大国都大。第三个原因是政策因素。这一定程度上与规模有关:美国比欧洲注入了更多的刺激政策,包括占GDP12%的支出,以及1.5个百分点的短期利率降低。但是政策还包括政府如何应对这次疫情造成的结构变化和创造性破坏。

As our special report this week explains, these adjustments will be immense. The pandemic will leave economies less globalised, more digitised and less equal. As they cut risks in their supply chains and harness automation, manufacturers will bring production closer to home. As office workers continue to work in their kitchens and bedrooms for at least part of the week, lower-paid workers who previously toiled as waiters, cleaners and sales assistants will need to find new jobs in the suburbs. Until they do, they could face long spells of unemployment. In America permanent job losses are mounting even as the headline unemployment rate falls (see United States section).

正如我们本周的特别报道所解释的那样,这些调整将会影响巨大。新冠将会使经济逆全球化,更加的数字化,和降低不平等。在他们排除供应量风险以及应用自动化以后,制造商将会把生产地点迁移到离家更近的地方。如上班族经常每周至少会有一部分时间是在厨房或者卧室工作,之前从事服务员、清洁工以及售货员的低薪工人将需要在郊区重新找工作。在此之前,他们可能会面临长期失业。在美国,总体失业率在下降,然而永久失业人数正在攀升。

As more activity moves online, business will become more dominated by firms with the most advanced intellectual property and the biggest repositories of data; this year’s boom in technology stocks gives a sense of what is coming, as does the digital surge in the banking industry (see our leader on Ant Group). And low real interest rates will keep asset prices high even if economies remain weak. This will widen the gulf between Wall Street and Main Street that emerged after the global financial crisis and which has worsened this year. The challenge for democratic governments will be to adapt to all these changes while maintaining popular consent for their policies and for free markets.

随着越来越多的活动在线上进行,商业活动将越来越多的由拥有先进技术和最大的数据仓库的公司所主导;今年,科技股的爆发预示着未来的发展方向,银行业的数字化也同样如此(比如我们的领头羊蚂蚁金服)。同时,即使实体经济依然疲软,低实际利率也会使得资产保持一个高的价格。这将拉大华尔街和普通民众之间的鸿沟,这种鸿沟在经济危机之后出现,而且近几年已经变得更严重。民主政府面临的挑战将会是适应所有的这些改变,并同时保持公众对其政策和自由市场的认同。

以上译自经济学人,仅供个人学习,如有侵权,请联系删除。

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