与死神共舞的西班牙 Spain- Dancing with death——经济学人翻译

The infanta leonor hospital,wedged between a motorway and a suburban railway, serves the dense working-class districts of south-eastern Madrid. Last month 402 of its 480 doctors signed a letter to the regional government warning that the hospital was in a state of “pre-collapse”, with 54% of its 361 beds and all 27 intensive-care spaces occupied by covid-19 patients. With 784 cases per 100,000 people in the past fortnight, Madrid is currently the worst-hit region in Europe.

infanta leonor医院,位于高速公路和郊区铁路之间,服务于马德里东南部密集的工人阶级区域。上个月,该医院480个医生中的402个联名给区政府写了一封信,提醒说该医院处于濒临崩溃的状态。361张病床中54% 和全部27个重症监护病房都被新冠患者占据。在过去两周,马德里每10万人中,有784例感染,这是目前欧洲疫情最严重的地区。

This is part of a broader national failure. On July 5th Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, proclaimed that “we have defeated the virus and controlled the pandemic.” Yet the country is once again Europe’s coronavirus black spot (see chart).

放大了说,这一定程度体现了国家的失败。在7月5日,西班牙首相 Pedro Sánchez 宣布 :”我们已经战胜了病毒,并且控制住了疫情。“然而这个国家却再一次成为了欧洲疫情的黑点。

What went wrong? Health experts point the finger at a failure of government for which both Mr Sánchez’s left-wing minority coalition and the conservative opposition People’s Party (pp), which runs Madrid, carry the blame.

到底是哪里出了错?健康专家把矛头指向政府的失败,管理着马德里的 Sánchez 的左翼少数党派联盟和保守的反对方民主党,都要为此负责。

After Europe’s strictest lockdown, Spain rushed its release. The pp joined Catalan and Basque nationalists in refusing to support the renewal of the state of emergency under which the government could restrict activity. Rebuffed, Mr Sánchez handed control of the pandemic to the regions and went on holiday. Several of the regions, especially Madrid, failed to strengthen primary health care and contact-tracing. The government failed to require them to do so, nor did it fix clear rules for handling outbreaks of the virus. The summer did the rest: heeding Mr Sánchez’s triumphalism, Spaniards returned to their normal happy mingling in bars, nightclubs and at family gatherings.

在欧洲严格的封锁之后,西班牙匆忙的进行了解禁。民主党和 Catalan 以及 Basque民族主义者一起反对重启紧急状态。在紧急状态下,政府可以限制人们活动。被拒绝的 Sánchez先生,把抗疫控制权交给了地方后度假去了。一些地区,特别是马德里,未能加强基础医疗措施和感染追踪。政府没有要求他们这样做,也没有制定清晰的规则去处理病毒爆发。剩下的一切都在夏天完成了:注意到Sánchez 先生的必胜信念,西班牙人又重新回到他们之前在酒吧、夜店、家庭聚会中的欢聚状态。

Isabel Díaz Ayuso, Madrid’s regional president, opposes stricter measures that would hurt the economy. This week the government thought it had secured her agreement to extend to the whole of the capital restrictions on non-essential movement and gatherings she has placed on its southern areas. New rules would require all cities of more than 100,000 people to follow suit when new cases rise above 500 per 100,000, and other criteria are met. But three other pp-governed regions opposed them, and as The Economist went to press, the deal seemed to have fallen apart.

马德里的地区主席 Isabel Díaz Ayuso 反对严格的封锁措施,因为这会影响经济发展。本周政府以为已经拿到了她的许可,扩展到在整个首都区域限制不必要的活动。并且她把聚会放在了南部地区。新的规定将会要求所有超过10万人的城市,当新增病例超过 每10万人500个感染,且满足其它标准时,就效仿该操作。但是另外三个民主党统治的地区反对他们,在本文发表的时候,这项协议似乎已经土崩瓦解。

The failure to keep the pandemic under control has nipped the economic recovery in the bud. Forecasters now reckon the economy will contract this year by up to 13%, the worst figure in Europe. A hoped for restart of tourism was curbed by the renewed outbreaks. Raymond Torres of Funcas, a think-tank, notes that the Spanish economy is particularly vulnerable because, all told, tourism and hospitality account for 26% of gdp—five points more than the European average.

因为没有控制住疫情,经济的复苏也被扼杀在萌芽状态。现在,预测家预计本年度经济将会收缩13% ,这是欧洲最糟糕的数字。希望重启旅游业的愿望被二次爆发的疫情掐灭了。职能机构 Funcas 的 Raymond Torres 指出,西班牙的经济结构十分脆弱,因为旅游业和酒店业占了GDP的 26% ——比欧洲平均水平多了5个百分点。

Some 60,000 of Spain’s 315,000 bars and restaurants have shut down; another 40,000 are likely to do so by the end of the year, according to the sector’s lobby. The government this week extended until January 31st a furlough scheme which currently helps some 800,000 workers (down from a peak of 3.2m). It has granted €85bn ($100bn) in credit to businesses. More tools may be needed to prevent what Mr Torres fears may be a “cascade of bankruptcies”.

在西班牙 31.5万个酒吧、餐馆中,有6万家已经倒闭;根据官方人员说,另外有4万家可能坚持不到年底。本周,政府将一项临时休假计划延长到1月31日,该计划目前帮助了将近80万工人。它已经向企业提供了1000亿美元的信贷用于做生意。可能需要更多的方法才能阻止 Torres 先生所担心的 ”破产潮“。

Spain is trusting in eu aid, but most of that will not arrive until 2022. It may be tied to reforms of the labour market, pensions, education and training. These require political consensus, which is in short supply. Mr Sánchez has repeatedly called for national unity, only for ministers to stick the knife into the opposition. His relations with Pablo Casado, the pp’s leader, are marked by mutual mistrust.

西班牙期待欧洲的援助,但大部分援助需要到2022年才到位。这可能会关系到劳务市场、养老金、教育、和培训。这需要达成政治上的共识,而这正是目前所缺乏的。Sánchez 先生一再呼吁全国团结,但部长们却把长刀挥向反对派。他与人民党领导人 Pablo Casado 是互不信任的。


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