匈牙利,选举势力中的较量。Hungary -Taking on Viktor Orban——译自经济学人

It isn’t easy .

Borsod is a sweet spot in north-east hungary, whichever way you look at it. It is home to a big chocolate factory (Szerencsi Bonbon), a caffeine-packed energy drink (Hell), and a pudding wine traditionally favoured by kings and queens on their wedding night (Tokay). It is also the place where the opposition to Viktor Orban, Hungary’s autocratic prime minister, is up against a challenge.

无论你从哪个角度看,波尔苏都是匈牙利东北部的一个绝佳地点。这里有大型的巧克力厂 Szerencsi Bonbon ,有咖啡因功能型饮料 Hell,还有国王和往后新婚之夜喜欢喝的布丁酒 Tokay 。这里还是匈牙利独裁首相Viktor Orban 的反对派面临挑战的地方。

Opposition parties hope that a by-election on October 11th will give a boost to their efforts to combine and defeat Mr Orban’s Fidesz party at the general election scheduled for 2022. Success in Borsod 6, the constituency in question, would theoretically end Fidesz’s super-majority in the Hungarian parliament, which allows it to alter the constitution; it currently has 133 of the 199 seats. “This would be above all a symbolic victory,” says Peter Marki-Zay, a prominent critic of Mr Orban. “The result will determine the political mood of the next 18 months.”

反对党希望在10月11号的补选中,能够促进他们在2022年大选中联合,并击败 Orban 先生的帮派。Borsod 六区的成功,理论上将结束Fidesz 在匈牙利议会上的压倒性地位,这允许它修改宪法;目前它拥有议会中199个席位中的133个。一对Orban 持批评态度的著名人士 Peter Marki-Zay 说道:“这将会是一个象征性的胜利,选举结果将会决定未来18个月的政治情绪“。

The task will not be easy. The joint opposition candidate is Laszlo Biro, a local entrepreneur from the formerly far-right, though now centre-right, Jobbik party. Early in the campaign, openly anti-Semitic remarks surfaced from his Facebook page of two years ago. Since then, the campaign against him in the government-sponsored media has been relentless, while Hungary’s few remaining independent outlets have professionally reported the agonising among opposition parties over their choice of candidate. Fidesz chose a 30-year-old political novice, Zsofia Koncz, to defend the seat held by her father, who died in July in a car crash.

这项任务并不容易。联合反对党的候选人是 Laszlo Biro,他是本地的一名企业家,之前是Jobbik党的极右派,尽管现在已经是中右派。在这场活动的初期,他的Facebook页面就出现了2年前发布的公开反对犹太人的言论。从那时起,反对他的活动在政府支持的媒体上就不间断的进行,而匈牙利的仅存的几个媒体,则专业的报道了反对党在选择候选人方面的痛苦。Fidesz 选择了一个30岁的政治雏鸟Zsofia Koncz 来捍卫他父亲的席位,他父亲在今年7月份死于车祸。

Borsod 6 illustrates the problems the opposition faces. Its 77,000 voters are spread among four towns and several dozen villages. Fewer than 10,000 of them have degrees, well below the national average. Opposition gains in last October’s local elections were mainly in larger towns. The rural poor, dependent on government work schemes initiated by Fidesz, are easily persuaded that only Mr Orban can improve their lot—one reason why a Jobbik candidate, no matter how unpalatable, has the best chance of taking the seat. But Fidesz’s stranglehold over regional media is almost total, and its influence through social media is far greater than in 2018.

Borsod 六区的情况阐明了反对派所面临的问题。它的 7.7万选民分布在四个大城市和几十个村庄中。他们中有学位的不到1万人,远低于国家平均水平。在去年10月份的本地选举中,反对派的优势在于主要集中在大城镇。农村的穷人依赖于Fidesz 政府工作计划的实施,他们很容易被说服相信只有Orban 先生才能给他们带来更多——这就是为什么无论 Jobbik 有多门令人讨厌,他都最有机会获得一个候选席位。但是 Fidesz 几乎控制了所有地区媒体,并且其社交媒体的影响力已经远超2018年。

Mr Biro has apologised for his racist comments, which included the word “Judapest”—a slur that originated in the early 20th century, when perhaps a quarter of the people in Budapest were Jewish. Jobbik makes other opposition voters uneasy, and working together hard. Yet Hungary’s new electoral system means that only close cooperation will work in 2022.

Biro 先生已经为他的种族主义言论道歉,其中包括 ”Judapest“一词——起源于20世纪早期的蔑称,当时 Budapest 有将近四分之一是犹太人。Jobbik 让其它反对派选民感到不安,并且合作困难。然而,匈牙利新的选举制度意味着只有密切合作才能够在2022年的选举中起作用。

以上译自经济学人,仅供个人学习,如有侵权请联系删除。

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