The newest polls and economic data have improved the president’s odds
Every four years ,political journalists and prognosticators deem America’s presidential contest the “election of the century”. By definition, each cannot be. But at the risk of causing readers’ eyes to roll backwards, the stakes really do appear higher than usual this time round. In early June The Economist published its own statistical forecasting model for this November’s presidential contest to guide such handicapping. Back then, it gave Mr Trump at best a one-in-five chance of winning a second term. But by July, as unrest and the coronavirus ravaged the nation, his odds had slumped to as low as one-in-ten. There they stayed until the middle of August. Now, our model shows Mr Trump has lawed back a sizeable chunk of support.
His nationwide deficit in vote-intentions versus Mr Biden has shrunk from ten points at its peak to just eight on September 9th. And in the key states of Florida and Pennsylvania—the two most likely to provide Mr Trump or Mr Biden with their 270th electoral vote—the president’s deficit has narrowed even more. Sunshine-state voters favoured Mr Biden by eight points at his peak in July. Now, they prefer him by just four. One high-quality pollster, Marist, has the candidates level in Florida (though more polls are surely needed to determine whether this is an outlier). In Pennsylvania, Mr Trump has risen from a nine-point deficit to a six-point one.
9月9号，特朗普在全国范围内的支持率，与拜登相比，已经从最顶峰的10个点下降到了8个点。而且在弗罗里达和宾夕法尼亚州这两个关键州中（这两个最有可能为选举提供270张选票），总统的劣势缩小的更多。阳光州的选民在七月时候对拜登的支持最高达到8个 点。现在，仅仅有4个点。在宾尼法尼亚州，特朗普的劣势已经从9个点上升为6个点。出自弗罗里达的一个高质量的民调机构 Marist——其已经达到候选人水平（尽管还需要更多的民调才能确定这是否是一个异常值）。
Other election indicators have also been good for the president of late. Our index of economic growth—which combines annual change in eight different indicators, from the unemployment rate to real personal income and manufacturing output—has been improving steadily since July. The August jobs report, which recorded a nearly two percentage-point drop in unemployment, contributed to a positive trend
Mr Trump’s job-approval ratings have also gone up. In early August we calculated that 15 percentage points more Americans disapproved of the job he was doing as president than approved of it. By September his popularity had improved a bit, to just an 11-point deficit. Taken together, these economic and political variables alone suggest the president will lose the popular vote by five points; up from a negative-six-point projection two months ago.
特朗普的工作支持率也上升了。在八月初，我们计算出不赞成他当总统的人数比赞同的要多出15%。到9月份，他的受欢迎程度有所提高，现在仅仅有12%劣势。综合来看，经济和政治的变数显示总统将会以 5 个点的弱势输掉选举；比两个前预测的6个点要高点。
Right now the most likely outcome of the election is still that Mr Trump loses. Our election-forecasting model projects that he will fall about 70 electoral votes shy of winning, though there is enough uncertainty in the election to suggest he could still prevail. We predict a relatively low (but by no means impossible) one-in-seven (14%) chance of a Trump victory. For context, our model would have given him nearly twice the chance (37%) at this point in 2016. Because of Mr Trump’s deficit in swing-state polls and the virus-stricken economy, he will have a tough slog to get a second term—despite voters’ marginally improving evaluations of his candidacy.