特朗普的支持率有所反弹,但最终能否获胜?The horse race. One trot closer——经济学人

我一直认为,能够身价数十亿,且能够当上总统。一定是超过绝大部分普通人。在我们媒体把对方描述成了“傻子”一样的疯狂总统时候,究竟是哪里出了问题?更关键的是,有很多人信。更更关键的是,竟然有许多媒体为了流量推波助澜。果真是全民娱乐了。

The newest polls and economic data have improved the president’s odds

最新的民意调查和经济数据提高了总统的胜率。

Every four years ,political journalists and prognosticators deem America’s presidential contest the “election of the century”. By definition, each cannot be. But at the risk of causing readers’ eyes to roll backwards, the stakes really do appear higher than usual this time round. In early June The Economist published its own statistical forecasting model for this November’s presidential contest to guide such handicapping. Back then, it gave Mr Trump at best a one-in-five chance of winning a second term. But by July, as unrest and the coronavirus ravaged the nation, his odds had slumped to as low as one-in-ten. There they stayed until the middle of August. Now, our model shows Mr Trump has lawed back a sizeable chunk of support.
每四年,政治记者和预言家们就会把美国的总统竞选称为“世纪选举”。确切的说,每个都不对。但是冒着让读者们翻白眼的危险,这次的赌注确实比平常要高。在六月初,经济学人为这次11月份的总统竞选发布了自己的统计预测模型,以引导这场比赛。当时,它给了特朗普最多20%的胜率赢得连任。但是到七月份的时候,因为新冠和动乱在全国爆发,他的胜算已经下滑到了10%,并一直保持到八月中旬。现在,我们的模型显示,特朗普已经收回了一大块的支持。

His nationwide deficit in vote-intentions versus Mr Biden has shrunk from ten points at its peak to just eight on September 9th. And in the key states of Florida and Pennsylvania—the two most likely to provide Mr Trump or Mr Biden with their 270th electoral vote—the president’s deficit has narrowed even more. Sunshine-state voters favoured Mr Biden by eight points at his peak in July. Now, they prefer him by just four. One high-quality pollster, Marist, has the candidates level in Florida (though more polls are surely needed to determine whether this is an outlier). In Pennsylvania, Mr Trump has risen from a nine-point deficit to a six-point one.

9月9号,特朗普在全国范围内的支持率,与拜登相比,已经从最顶峰的10个点下降到了8个点。而且在弗罗里达和宾夕法尼亚州这两个关键州中(这两个最有可能为选举提供270张选票),总统的劣势缩小的更多。阳光州的选民在七月时候对拜登的支持最高达到8个 点。现在,仅仅有4个点。在宾尼法尼亚州,特朗普的劣势已经从9个点上升为6个点。出自弗罗里达的一个高质量的民调机构 Marist——其已经达到候选人水平(尽管还需要更多的民调才能确定这是否是一个异常值)。

Other election indicators have also been good for the president of late. Our index of economic growth—which combines annual change in eight different indicators, from the unemployment rate to real personal income and manufacturing output—has been improving steadily since July. The August jobs report, which recorded a nearly two percentage-point drop in unemployment, contributed to a positive trend

最近,其它的选举指标对总统也有利。我们的经济增长指数——结合了8各不同指标的年度变化,从失业率到真实的个人收入以及工业产出——从7月以来已经稳步增长。8月份的就业报告显示,失业率下降了近2个百分点,这是一个好的趋势。

Mr Trump’s job-approval ratings have also gone up. In early August we calculated that 15 percentage points more Americans disapproved of the job he was doing as president than approved of it. By September his popularity had improved a bit, to just an 11-point deficit. Taken together, these economic and political variables alone suggest the president will lose the popular vote by five points; up from a negative-six-point projection two months ago.

特朗普的工作支持率也上升了。在八月初,我们计算出不赞成他当总统的人数比赞同的要多出15%。到9月份,他的受欢迎程度有所提高,现在仅仅有12%劣势。综合来看,经济和政治的变数显示总统将会以 5 个点的弱势输掉选举;比两个前预测的6个点要高点。

Right now the most likely outcome of the election is still that Mr Trump loses. Our election-forecasting model projects that he will fall about 70 electoral votes shy of winning, though there is enough uncertainty in the election to suggest he could still prevail. We predict a relatively low (but by no means impossible) one-in-seven (14%) chance of a Trump victory. For context, our model would have given him nearly twice the chance (37%) at this point in 2016. Because of Mr Trump’s deficit in swing-state polls and the virus-stricken economy, he will have a tough slog to get a second term—despite voters’ marginally improving evaluations of his candidacy.

目前为止,大选的最可能结果仍然是特朗普输掉。我们的选举模型预测他将会以70个选举人的选票差而失败,尽管这有足够的不确定性表明他仍然有获胜可能。我们预测他获胜可能性较低(但并不意味着不可能),有14%的获胜可能。就以往经历,我们的模型比2016年多给了他将近2倍的获胜机会。因为了特朗普在摇摆州民调中存在劣势,再加上被新冠重创的经济,尽管选民对他的候选资格评价略有提高,但想要连任,依然困难重重。

以上译自经济学人,仅供个人学习,如有侵权,请联系删除。

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